Best Mortgage Rates Ontario: Forecast & Guidance in 2025
Fixed Mortgage Rates from 3.69% · Variable Rates from 3.60%
Compare, learn, and stay current on Ontario’s best mortgage rates and strategy — updated daily by Brent Richardson, Mortgage Broker/ Owner & CFP, with rate insights you can trust.
Page last updated: November 16, 2025
Best Mortgage Rates in Ontario
Altrua Financial’s best mortgage rates are fully discounted due to high volume and lender buydowns. We compare over 30 top lenders.
Big Bank Mortgage Rate Comparison
Discounted Big Bank mortgage rate specials.
Where Mortgage Rates Are Heading (2025 – 2026 Outlook)
Bank of Canada – Flirting with Stimulative Rates
The Bank of Canada cut its overnight rate to 2.25 % in October 2025 — its lowest since early 2022 — bringing monetary policy to the low end of the neutral rate range.
This end of the neutral rate range flirts with a stimulative rate, while also keeping a watchful eye on higher inflation.
Governor Tiff Macklem stated the Bank is “comfortable with the current stance of policy given inflation progress”, hinting at a pause through early 2026.
Bond Yields & Fixed Rates
Government of Canada 5-year bond yields have notched higher to ~2.75 %, up ~ 0.10 over last week, although still down from ~3% at the beginning of 2025.
The bond yield in this range generally supports fixed mortgage rates in the 3.7–4.0% range for insured borrowers. Given these higher Bond Yields, there is upward pressure on fixed mortgage rates currently, so be sure to reserve/ lock in a rate soon (this does not commit you do the rate if reserving through Altrua).
[Image Placeholder: line chart showing 5-year bond yield vs fixed mortgage rate trend]
Variable Rates
Variable rates fell by roughly 0.25% after the October BoC cut and could slip further—but only if there is significantly more bad economic news that heads Canada’s way.
Otherwise, we have likely reached a short-medium term bottom for variable mortgage rates, as inflation’s ‘stickiness’ around 3 % limits deeper cuts.
Click here for our full mortgage rate forecast in Canada (updated weekly).
Fixed Vs Variable Mortgage Rate Simulator
This mortgage rate simulator compares the cost of a 5 year fixed mortgage rate and a 5 year variable mortgage rate. For the variable rate, the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate/prime rate forecast has been entered into the calculator (currently a pause, then 2 hikes over the course of 5 years).
Below is the data we assume for this simulation, along with the results and discussion:
| Term | 5 Year Variable: Prime Minus 0.75% |
|---|---|
| Amortization | 25 |
| Balance | $100,000 |
| Compounding | Semi-Annual |
| Average Rate Over 5 Years | 3.96% |
| Average Payment Over 5 Years | $521 |
| Term | 5 Year Fixed: 3.99% |
|---|---|
| Amortization | 25 |
| Balance | $100,000 |
| Compounding | Semi-Annual |
| Average Rate Over 5 Years | 3.99% |
| Average Payment Over 5 Years | $525 |
Discussion:
The rate simulator shows variable-rate savings of $242 over 5 years for every $100,000 of mortgage.
In other words, for the additional $242 per $100,000 of mortgage, you get insurance against a higher rate for 5 years.
Further discussion of which interest rate might be best for you is below. Or visit our full fixed Vs variable mortgage article here.
Mortgage Rate Guidance: 3 Most Popular Mortgage Terms
5-Year Fixed
- The classic Canadian mortgage balances stability and price. Roughly half of all homeowners in Ontario are currently choosing this term.
- Financial market data indicate we are at a short-medium term market bottom for rates. This would make a lock-in to a 5-year fixed rate a good, conservative play.
- Longer term inflation/ asset inflation prospects make 4% rates look pretty good; you can likely earn higher than 4% on long term investments
- It’s the ‘sleep well at night’: Just set it and forget it rate.
See 5 year fixed mortgage rates compared from over 20 lenders here.
5-Year Variable
- The higher-risk, higher-reward mortgage rate proposition. Variable has been popular lately because the BoC has been cutting rates. But when rates are increasing, the mood changes pretty fast…
- We’ll likely see higher- and lower variable rates at some point within the next 10 years. The key question is when these fluctuations will happen. For now, it looks like the BoC has paused its cutting cycle.
- But if Canada sees an economic crisis, this could send variable rates down 1%+. Currently, this is more of a speculative play/ decision. However, one that could become real quickly.
- If youre OK with monitoring rates, perhaps alongside the monitoring services of a good Broker such as Altrua Financial, and are comfortable with the risk of a potentially higher payment, then the Variable could be right for you.
See variable mortgage rates compared from over 20 lenders here.
3-Year Fixed
- A popular “middle-ground” option — offering more flexibility than a 5 year fixed rate, without the potential of short term volatility and payment risk of a variable rate.
- If the economy hits a major crisis and rates drop, it’s much easier to break the 3 year fixed rate, with a lower breakage penalty compared to the 5-year fixed.
- However, if the base case market forecast is correct and rates are 0.25% higher in 3 years, then you’d be renewing into a higher rate, where you could have been in a lower rate for 5 years
- The market is only forecasting a slightly higher rate in 3 years, though, so if youre OK with this potential cost, for more downward flexibility if the economy drops, then the 3-year may be right for you.
See 3 year fixed mortgage rates compared from over 20 lenders here.
Other Common Terms
- 1-Year Fixed: great for short renewals, credit repair, moving soon, or bridge financing. Compare 1 year fixed rates here.
- 2-Year Fixed: for those expecting additional BoC cuts, or moving within 2 years. Compare 2 year fixed rates here.
- 4-Year Fixed: A slightly more flexible alternative to 5-year, and may be had for cheaper from some lenders. Compare 4 year fixed rates here.
- 10-Year Fixed: stability seekers (long-term owners). Very interesting long-term proposition, especially if rates fall further. Compare 10 year fixed rates here.
How Mortgage Rates Affect Housing Affordability in Ontario
Ontario’s housing markets move at different speeds, and so do their relationship with mortgage rates. Here’s how rates and affordability trends compare across major cities.
Toronto/ GTA
- Avg GTA Price in October: $1,054,372
- 20% down payment, 30 YR AM at 3.99%: $4,006/mo
- The Toronto/ GTA market continues to experience softness with the average selling price across down 7.2% to $1,054,372 from October 2024.
- Click For more on Toronto mortgage rates and home values.
Ottawa:
- Avg Ottawa Price in October: $709,002
- 20% down payment, 30 YR AM at 3.99%: $2,694/mo
- The Ottawa market remains resilient compared to other parts of Ontario. In October, average selling prices increased 2.7% from September and were 5.7% higher than in October 2024
- Click for more on Ottawa mortgage rates and home values.
Hamilton/Niagara:
- Avg Hamilton Price in October: $781,277
- 20% down payment, 30 YR AM at 3.69%: $2,969/ mo
- The Hamilton market continues to experience softness in October, with prices down 4.5% year over year. Inventory, months of supply, and average days on market also increased, putting downward pressure on prices.
- Click for more on Hamilton mortgage rates and home values.
London:
- Avg London Price in October: $605,500
- 20% down payment, 30 YR AM at 3.99%: $2,301/ mo
- The London market continues to experience notable softness with average prices down to $605,500 in October, a loss of about $45,500 in just two months.
- Click for more on London mortgage rates and home values.
Kitchener–Waterloo:
- Avg KW Price in October: $734,928
- 20% down payment, 30 YR AM at 3.99%: $2,792/ mo
- The KWC market continued to experience moderate softness, with prices down 5.6% year over year to $734,928 in October.
- Click for more on Kitchener mortgage rates and home values.
Mortgage Rate Calculator
A reliable mortgage rate calculator, but better rates than the competition that come with personalized, industry-leading advice.
Estimate your payment, compare scenarios, and see how a 0.25 % difference impacts your budget.
Mortgage Rates Ontario Compared by Lender Types:
There are 3 main types of mortgage lenders in Ontario. Each offers unique benefits and plays a role in the market. When selecting your mortgage rate, it’s essential to consider all three options:
Bank Rates:
- These are well known brands that many mortgage seekers feel comfortable with.
- Typically, branches use ‘negotiation tactics’ to maintain higher profitability.
- Typically has better rates on mortgage refinances and ‘uninsured’ mortgages.
- Breakage penalties are typically higher with big banks.
Check below for Big Bank Rates:
Discount Lenders/ Mortgage Financing Companies
- Discount lenders and wholesale lenders are a major positive force in the Ontario mortgage rate landscape. They are said to ‘keep the Big Banks honest’ when it comes to mortgage rates.
- These are multi-billion dollar companies, often managing over $100 billion in mortgage assets and servicing thousands of Canadian borrowers. However, you may not have heard their names advertised because they invest their marketing dollars into keeping mortgage rates low.
- They can have lower fixed rate penalties than the big banks. This can be a huge benefit if the mortgage needs to be broken/ paid out for any reason.
- Typically offer better rates for insured or insurable purchases and renewals valued at $1,000,000 or less, with no downside risk and clear fine print.
Click below for Mortgage Finance Company Rates:
Credit Union Mortgage Rates
- The credit union plays an integral part in the Ontario mortgage market. They are regulated by the Province of Ontario, not by the Federal Government. This has afforded the credit unions some interesting flexibility.
- Often, credit unions offer excellent mortgage rate specials that beat those of Big Banks.
- Credit unions are usually closer to big banks when it comes to fine print, including higher penalties based on posted rates.
- Credit unions are typically community-focused and member-owned, which is a nice thing all things considered.
Click to Compare Credit Union Mortgage Rates:
Medium Sized Bank Mortgage Lenders
Altrua Financial reviews these options daily, along with several other lenders, to ensure you get the best mortgage options and rate.
Top 5 FAQs About Ontario Mortgage Rates
1. How often are these mortgage rates updated?
Rates are updated daily to reflect the latest lender offers, bond yields, and BoC decisions.
2. Are rates different between cities in Ontario?
Yes — competition and property types vary by region, so Toronto and Ottawa may see slightly different insured rates than smaller markets. However, a Broker such as Altrua Financial can easily apply the same competition-heavy rates found in Toronto to all areas throughout Ontario.
3. Why are broker rates lower than bank rates?
Brokers access multiple institutional lenders who specialize in mortgage-only products and offer lower spreads than retail banks.
4. Will mortgage rates drop further in 2026?
It’s possible, but unlikely at present, with only a 35% chance of a cut in 2026. If core inflation continues to cool below 2.75% and employment drops substantially, the odds of a cut will increase. Expect stability rather than sharp declines.
5. Should I lock in now or wait?
If you see a 5-year fixed below 4%, locking in at that rate offers good value given market odds. However, if you can tolerate potentially higher rates and are comfortable with fluctuating rates, it’s possible that rates will drop further if the Canadian economy experiences a crisis.
About Brent Richardson, Author
Mortgage Broker | Owner Altrua Financial | Certified Financial Planner (CFP)
Brent Richardson has helped thousands of Ontarians find the best mortgage rates and long-term savings strategies. His approach combines real-world broker data with financial planning insight so clients can make smarter decisions from day one.