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Brent Richardson
Principal Mortgage Broker/ Owner (Lic. # M08006143), Certified Financial Planner (CFP) Altrua Financial Inc. Lic. #13005
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Ground Level Updates on Mortgages and the Housing Market, before it hits the news
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The BoC meets on Wed, with market odds at 10% for a cut
Last weeks jobs report surprised with unemployment declining to 6.5% -the lowest since Jan- giving the BoC no reason to move
Market odds remain undecided at 50% for a Dec hike, with economist consensus projecting a hold
🇨🇦 Real GDP stabilized in April (0.5% growth vs 0.4% est.), preventing bond yields/fixed mortgage rates from dropping quickly
But the rate trend is your friend
Oil in the $60 range + CUSMA uncertainty should keep downward pressure on inflation and fixed rates through July
Fixed mortgage rates have begun dropping, given lower oil prices and bond yields
If yields remain at current levels we’ll see 5 yr fixed rates in the 3.89% - 4.04% range, slightly less for 3 yr
However, stickier 🇺🇸 inflation will keep a near term floor on 🇨🇦 bonds/rates
5 Year government of Canada bond yields break below 3%
~ flat since the beginning of 2026, before the Iran war broke out
If this holds, we'll see fixed mortgage rates drop 0.10 - 0.20% within 1-2 weeks
🇨🇦's headline inflation in May surged to 3.2%, a 29 month high, due to higher energy prices
However, core inflation excluding energy was flat at 2.05%
With lower oil prices, the BoC is likely to hold, alongside downward pressure on bond yields/fixed rates
Oil prices in the mid $70's is only moderately inflationary
This means a much lower likelihood of rate hikes, and adds buoyancy to stock markets
The big question now is whether these prices sustain
After last weeks BoC hold, what happens next?
A US-Iranian peace deal doveshly sent oil and bond yields down 5%+, taking pressure off fixed rates
Despite optimism, until peace with Iran is sustained, a floor will remain on rates, with market odds at 70% for a hike in Dec 2026
Is the stock market overvalued? Will it crash? Or will it surge?
These are the wrong questions
Market timing is psychological warfare. It can ruin quality of life AND outcomes
The right question is: How do I build wealth effectively and reach independence with
🚨 JUST IN 🚨Bank of Canada holds its overnight interest rate at 2.25% as widely expected. Bank Prime remains 4.45%
What's not as expected is for BoC hikes of 0.50% within 1 year
But if oil remains at $90+ until winter, hikes become imminent
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