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Brent Richardson
Principal Mortgage Broker/ Owner (Lic. # M08006143), Certified Financial Planner (CFP) Altrua Financial Inc. Lic. #13005
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Ground Level Updates on Mortgages and the Housing Market, before it hits the news
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BoC October rate hike odds rose to 63%, with 125 bps of tightening priced in over the next year
Fixed mortgage rates continued to push higher as banks do not see bond yield relief on the horizon
Rate pressure, mainly driven by the Iran conflict, likely drops off when it ends
Mortgage rate pressure pulled back over the past week, mainly on lower oil and US treasury yields
This didnt stop fixed rates from nudging higher with best rates now firmly in the low-mid 4%
As the BoC meetings approach odds of a hike firm up at 58% in Oct + 100% in Dec
Mortgage rate/ bond yield pressure surge on higher oil prices and inflation fears
Fixed rates have increased at every Bank by 0.15 - 0.20 and continue to see upward pressure
Odds of a BoC hike in Oct leapt 27% to 57%, while a Dec 2026 0.25 hike remains firmly locked in
After last week's BoC hold, markets are pricing in a 30% chance of a hike in Oct, and are 100% locked in for Dec
In line with the rate forecast, markets continue to bet inflation will prevail over trade related disinflationary economic deterioration in 🇨🇦
Markets are pricing in a 94% chance of a BoC rate hold on Wednesday
But odds of a BoC hike increase to 26% in Oct and 90%+ for Dec
Fixed mortgage rate pressure has also resumed as 🇨🇦 Q2 Real GDP growth came in at 3.3% and as US Yields push higher on inflation concerns
Bond yields took a 3% haircut Monday reducing fixed rate presure as 50% tariffs hit industries across 🇨🇦
What happens next determines rate direction:
🇺🇸 tariffs doubled or ‘CUSMA cancelled’ =⬇️
🇨🇦 tariffs+low $ increae inflation = ⬆️
An interim trade deal is reached =⬆️
🚨 BREAKING: 🇨🇦 CPI/ Inflation for July came in at 2.9% driven by higher gas prices
Excluding gas CPI was 2.2%
Fixed rates continue to increase, with a few lenders still holding out
A positive US-CAN trade outcome this week could hold pressure on yields/rates
Another reason Governments like inflation:
Taxpayer incomes inflate into higher marginal tax rates
In Ontario, a $100,000 income taxed at 31.50% rises to $120,000 taxed at 43.4%
Same Real dollar value, higher tax bracket
Another way Governments increase taxes
🚨 Big Banks have started increasing fixed rates as the 5 YR Bond yield pushed above 3.3%
0.05% - 0.10% increases are imminent: Reserve a fixed rate if your mortgage is coming up for renewal
Markets are pricing a ~70% chance for a BoC hike in Dec 2026 and 90%+ in early 2027
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