Book your no obligation introductory call today.
Brent Richardson
Principal Mortgage Broker/ Owner (Lic. # M08006143), Certified Financial Planner (CFP) Altrua Financial Inc. Lic. #13005
Follow today on Youtube, Twitter or Instagram for regular updates!
Ground Level Updates on Mortgages and the Housing Market, before it hits the news
;
🇨🇦 Bond yields nudged higher as oil flirts with $100 and CPI/inflation in Sept increased to 3.1% - despite core inflation holding at 2% (excluding gas prices)
We are highlighting the 3 year fixed rate since the average BoC rate hike cycle lasts ~3 years, set to begin in Dec
Joint statement on Iran, October 12
Bond yields and fixed mortgage rate pressure finally took a breather on weaker 🇺🇸 payrolls, lower oil, and weaker 🇨🇦 factory orders
Odds of an Oct BoC hike followed suit, dropping to 33%. But the Dec hike remains firmly locked in... that and ~1% of hikes through 2027
BoC October rate hike odds rose to 63%, with 125 bps of tightening priced in over the next year
Fixed mortgage rates continued to push higher as banks do not see bond yield relief on the horizon
Rate pressure, mainly driven by the Iran conflict, likely drops off when it ends
Mortgage rate pressure pulled back over the past week, mainly on lower oil and US treasury yields
This didnt stop fixed rates from nudging higher with best rates now firmly in the low-mid 4%
As the BoC meetings approach odds of a hike firm up at 58% in Oct + 100% in Dec
Mortgage rate/ bond yield pressure surge on higher oil prices and inflation fears
Fixed rates have increased at every Bank by 0.15 - 0.20 and continue to see upward pressure
Odds of a BoC hike in Oct leapt 27% to 57%, while a Dec 2026 0.25 hike remains firmly locked in
After last week's BoC hold, markets are pricing in a 30% chance of a hike in Oct, and are 100% locked in for Dec
In line with the rate forecast, markets continue to bet inflation will prevail over trade related disinflationary economic deterioration in 🇨🇦
Markets are pricing in a 94% chance of a BoC rate hold on Wednesday
But odds of a BoC hike increase to 26% in Oct and 90%+ for Dec
Fixed mortgage rate pressure has also resumed as 🇨🇦 Q2 Real GDP growth came in at 3.3% and as US Yields push higher on inflation concerns
Bond yields took a 3% haircut Monday reducing fixed rate presure as 50% tariffs hit industries across 🇨🇦
What happens next determines rate direction:
🇺🇸 tariffs doubled or ‘CUSMA cancelled’ =⬇️
🇨🇦 tariffs+low $ increae inflation = ⬆️
An interim trade deal is reached =⬆️
We are Mortgage Brokers proudly serving customers from 5 locations in Ontario.
Kitchener/ Waterloo (Head Office)
In Kitchener Waterloo Call: 1-877-248-9210
Hamilton
In Hamilton Call: 905-538-0677
Privacy Statement:
Altrua Financial Inc. is exceptionally committed to respecting the privacy of individuals and recognizes a need for the appropriate management and protection of any personal information that you agree to provide to us. We will not share your information with any third party outside of our organization, other than as necessary to fulfill your mortgage request.