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Brent Richardson
Principal Mortgage Broker/ Owner (Lic. # M08006143), Certified Financial Planner (CFP) Altrua Financial Inc. Lic. #13005
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Ground Level Updates on Mortgages and the Housing Market, before it hits the news
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After posting a solid downward spiral, bond yields moved higher Tuesday on higher than experted US inflation, pushing chances of a BoC hike in Dec back up over 50% and holding a Jan hike to 'locked in' status
The oil price vs inflation tug of war over mortgage rates continues
Oil prices nosedived on Monday on potential breakthroughs in the Middle East, as 🇨🇦 factory output contracted
This led bond yields to drop to a 2 month low, taking pressure off fixed rates
Odds of a BoC hike in Dec also dropped to 51%, while a Jan hike is still fully priced
Heading into Wednesday's BoC meeting, market projections surged over the past week to price in a 76% chance of a 0.25% hike
Markets have also locked in a Dec hike at💯
We're highlighting 3 YR fixed or VRM for the risk tolerant given the potentially shorter term inflation trend
🇨🇦 Bond yields nudged higher as oil flirts with $100 and CPI/inflation in Sept increased to 3.1% - despite core inflation holding at 2% (excluding gas prices)
We are highlighting the 3 year fixed rate since the average BoC rate hike cycle lasts ~3 years, set to begin in Dec
Joint statement on Iran, October 12
Bond yields and fixed mortgage rate pressure finally took a breather on weaker 🇺🇸 payrolls, lower oil, and weaker 🇨🇦 factory orders
Odds of an Oct BoC hike followed suit, dropping to 33%. But the Dec hike remains firmly locked in... that and ~1% of hikes through 2027
BoC October rate hike odds rose to 63%, with 125 bps of tightening priced in over the next year
Fixed mortgage rates continued to push higher as banks do not see bond yield relief on the horizon
Rate pressure, mainly driven by the Iran conflict, likely drops off when it ends
Mortgage rate pressure pulled back over the past week, mainly on lower oil and US treasury yields
This didnt stop fixed rates from nudging higher with best rates now firmly in the low-mid 4%
As the BoC meetings approach odds of a hike firm up at 58% in Oct + 100% in Dec
Mortgage rate/ bond yield pressure surge on higher oil prices and inflation fears
Fixed rates have increased at every Bank by 0.15 - 0.20 and continue to see upward pressure
Odds of a BoC hike in Oct leapt 27% to 57%, while a Dec 2026 0.25 hike remains firmly locked in
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