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Brent Richardson
Principal Mortgage Broker/ Owner (Lic. # M08006143), Certified Financial Planner (CFP) Altrua Financial Inc. Lic. #13005
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Ground Level Updates on Mortgages and the Housing Market, before it hits the news
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Bond markets seemingly shrugged off the biggest 🇨🇦jobs market decline in over 3 years, with yields down just a touch
No upward pressure on fixed rates currently, but we'll need to see another ~ (-) .20 lower yields to see fixed rates dip meaningfully
Canada is in recession.
Canada lost 40.8K jobs in July, below all estimates.
Youth unemployment rate reached its highest level since 2010, per Statcan.
Between this and a 90% chance of Fed cuts in September, I'd say there's clear runway for more cuts in Canada now.
🇨🇦 bond yields plunged on weak 🇺🇸 jobs data, and spiked the odds of a 0.25 US Fed cut in Sept to 96%
However, chances of a Sept BoC hold remains high at 77%, as 🇨🇦's effective 🇺🇸 tariff rate is ~6.3% due to CUSMA
Look out for 🇨🇦 jobs report Friday for potential yield swings
*BREAKING* The Bank of Canada extends its pause for a third time, holding its overnight rate at 2.75% as it monitors inflation and economic uncertainty
Most lenders have increased fixed rates ~0.10 but one rebellious big bank actually lowered their 5 yr fixed insured, as low as 3.84% through our Brokerage
BoC cuts not likely this month or September, however if job losses materialize in the Fall we could see a cut by years end
Core inflation concerns in 🇨🇦 and 🇺🇸 continued to push Bond Yields higher, with the 2 YR Bond currently indicating a BoC hike in early 2027
Given no BoC cuts priced in, that variable rates are higher than fixed is an anomaly, with a high potential fixed rates rise ~0.25% soon
June headline CPI/inflation came in slightly higher at 1.9% vs 1.7% in May
The BoC preferred measure of core inflation remains elevated at 3% indicating the BoC is likely to hold
Expectations are for inflation to continue nudging up, given deficit spending and protectionism
What was once the crown jewel of Canadian tech is turning into rental apartments
Revealing of how Canada has evolved over the past 20 years
Former Blackberry offices could be transformed into thousands of apartments https://www.ctvnews.ca/kitchener/article/former-blackberry-offices-could-be-transformed-into-thousands-of-apartments/?cid=sm%3Atrueanthem%3Actvkitchener%3Atwitterpost%E2%80%8B&taid=68759a21d530ed0001d57043&utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
Fixed mortgage rate hikes of 0.10-0.20% appear imminent as 5 YR bond yields surged above 3% on employment strength in June
Financial markets are no longer fully pricing in a BoC rate cut in 2025, however this could change
Tuesdays inflation report is expected slightly higher
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