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Brent Richardson
Principal Mortgage Broker/ Owner (Lic. # M08006143), Certified Financial Planner (CFP) Altrua Financial Inc. Lic. #13005
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Ground Level Updates on Mortgages and the Housing Market, before it hits the news
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🚨BREAKING 🇨🇦 headline CPI/ inflation for November held at 2.2% vs estimates of 2.3%
Lower travel costs and rents moderated CPI, while grocery increased 4.7% and cellular up 12.7%
Overall its discouraging, as everyday costs increase faster, adding pressure on households
Why 🇨🇦 rents could hit a floor sooner than expected: Shadow Demand
'As rental prices decline, doubled households are more likely to undouble'
'The scale of this cohort is likely much higher than policymakers think'
- Benjamin Tal, CIBC Economics
'Shadow demand': Why Canadian rents could hit a floor sooner than expected
A hidden wave of renters is likely undercounted and poised to absorb affordable units, says CIBC.
ca.finance.yahoo.com
Here's the updated Bank of Canada outlook for the next 5 years
It indicates 1% of hikes
This is becoming a tougher story to bet against
This always starts with disbelief. But you can still lock into a a fixed rate within a stones throw of VRM
HT @MtgLogicNews for the chart
🚨 JUST IN: Bank of 🇨🇦 HOLDS its overnight rate at 2.25%, pausing after 2.75% of cuts
The BoC will monitor the economy, basing future decisions on:
- Inflation
- Growth
- Employment
- 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 trade
- Indirect stimulus from 🇺🇸 fed cuts
2026 will be another interesting year
Bond yield/fixed mortgage rate pressure are sharply higher on 🇨🇦's Nov jobs report, with markets now projecting 70% odds of a BoC hike in 2026
Fixed rates starting to climb in the 0.10-0.20% range
However, this could reverse in '26 as hiring may be seasonal and 🇺🇸 trade stalls
🚨BREAKING: 🇨🇦 added 54,000 jobs in November bringing the unemployment rate down to 6.5%
Although gains were concentrated in part time employment, this was still enough to send the Canada 5 Yr Bond Yield up ~ 5% in early trading
Fixed mortgage rate increase is imminent
'Do you prefer your economic eggs hard or soft?
Your answer to that question may dictate how tasty Canada’s economy has been lately…
Please excuse the egg analogy but our point is:
So called hard and soft data have been giving conflicting signals recently'
🧵👇
A recipe for Stagflation in 🇨🇦
1. Prices rose rapidly during COVID and never fully came back down
2. Prices are still rising too quickly today (3–4%)
3. Real economic activity is weak
4. Interest rates must stay high, which suppresses growth but doesn’t fully cure inflation
Financial markets are modestly pricing in a BoC hike by the end of 2026
Even though this will probably change 27 times, it is the base case today
H/T @MtgLogicNews for the chart
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