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Brent Richardson
Principal Mortgage Broker/ Owner (Lic. # M08006143), Certified Financial Planner (CFP) Altrua Financial Inc. Lic. #13005
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Ground Level Updates on Mortgages and the Housing Market, before it hits the news
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🚨 BREAKING: February CPI/Inflation came in at 1.8%, led by lower energy costs
Excluding energy, inflation was 2.6%
Its likely that the March CPI print will show a dramatic increase in energy costs, pushing inflation above 3%
Fixed mortgage rates have moved up 0.10 - 0.15%
Shares of Canadian subprime lender Goeasy fall 50% on guidance of surging loan defaults and write downs
Sub prime lending is often first to drop near the end of a credit cycle
This could be a canary in the coal mine for mortgage defaults and power of sales
Fixed mortgage rate hikes of ~0.20% are imminent in the coming days
According to Morgan Stanley, a 30% oil price shock could lift headline inflation by ~1% within 3 months
Market odds are currently volatile, but are now leaning towards a 0.25% BoC hike within the next year
🚨 Bond yields are up ~7% on the week 🚨
If this holds through tomorrow, fixed rates will be increasing 0.10 - 0.15% across the board and may be headed even higher
This is not a drill
If youre up for renewal, reserve your rate ASAP
Fears of a credit crisis and geo political risk gave way to anticipation of higher inflation due to a spike in oil prices Monday morning
Accordingly, Bond yields lept ~3.5%
A sustained war of 2-3 weeks+ could result in an inflationary trend and upward fixed rate pressure
We are seeing some of the lowest fixed mortgage rates in over 3 years:
5 YR fixed @ 3.69% for purchases and 3.79% for renewals
VRM still carries upside risk, but the outlook is improving
BoC odds have pulled back from 4 hikes (1%) over the next 5 years to 3 hikes (0.75%)
And bond yields barely flinched on the news… among all the tariff noise, the bond market has remained cool as a cucumber
BREAKING: The Supreme Court of the United States has officially ruled that President Trump's tariffs are illegal, in a 6-3 ruling.
The US now faces $150+ billion in potential tariff refunds.
🇨🇦 CPI/ inflation in January lowered by 0.1% to 2.3%, slightly under consensus of 2.4%. Excluding gasoline, inflation was 3%
This, plus investors moving to safety in bonds/lower yields prompted some banks to reduce fixed rates by ~0.05%
Odds of a BoC March cut increased to 13%
$PYPL plan to buy back $6B of shares in 2026 could be a terrible strategy if the business decelerates
Until growth stabilizes, management should allocate capital to growing assets - even treasuries
Otherwise its just more good money after bad
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In Kitchener Waterloo Call: 1-877-248-9210
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In Hamilton Call: 905-538-0677
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