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Brent Richardson
Principal Mortgage Broker/ Owner (Lic. # M08006143), Certified Financial Planner (CFP) Altrua Financial Inc. Lic. #13005
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Ground Level Updates on Mortgages and the Housing Market, before it hits the news
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Bond yields took a 3% haircut Monday reducing fixed rate presure as 50% tariffs hit industries across 🇨🇦
What happens next determines rate direction:
🇺🇸 tariffs doubled or ‘CUSMA cancelled’ =⬇️
🇨🇦 tariffs+low $ increae inflation = ⬆️
An interim trade deal is reached =⬆️
🚨 BREAKING: 🇨🇦 CPI/ Inflation for July came in at 2.9% driven by higher gas prices
Excluding gas CPI was 2.2%
Fixed rates continue to increase, with a few lenders still holding out
A positive US-CAN trade outcome this week could hold pressure on yields/rates
Another reason Governments like inflation:
Taxpayer incomes inflate into higher marginal tax rates
In Ontario, a $100,000 income taxed at 31.50% rises to $120,000 taxed at 43.4%
Same Real dollar value, higher tax bracket
Another way Governments increase taxes
🚨 Big Banks have started increasing fixed rates as the 5 YR Bond yield pushed above 3.3%
0.05% - 0.10% increases are imminent: Reserve a fixed rate if your mortgage is coming up for renewal
Markets are pricing a ~70% chance for a BoC hike in Dec 2026 and 90%+ in early 2027
🇨🇦 Bond yields surged ~10% last week, but as oil prices fell on Monday, fixed rates pulled back from the brink of🔼
Any sustained rise in yields from here will likely result in fixed rate increases
Markets project 0.75% BoC hikes within a year - pending oil prices
More 👇
Investors search tirelessly for market beating returns. Most never find them
But when some of the world’s most capable and informed CEOs confidently bet their companies on the future, investors run for the hills
Makes sense…
🇨🇦 Inflation slowed from 3.2% in May to 2.8% in June on lower gas prices
Excluding gas prices, inflation held steady at 2.2% month over month
However financial markets are currently pricing higher inflation, with 40% odds of a BoC hike in Oct, ~60% in Dec, 99% in 2027
More👇
The BoC meets on Wed, with market odds at 10% for a cut
Last weeks jobs report surprised with unemployment declining to 6.5% -the lowest since Jan- giving the BoC no reason to move
Market odds remain undecided at 50% for a Dec hike, with economist consensus projecting a hold
🇨🇦 Real GDP stabilized in April (0.5% growth vs 0.4% est.), preventing bond yields/fixed mortgage rates from dropping quickly
But the rate trend is your friend
Oil in the $60 range + CUSMA uncertainty should keep downward pressure on inflation and fixed rates through July
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